Recrutement des consultants individuels internationaux à indiquer leur intérêt pour la mission suivante pour l’évaluation de l’impact à court et long terme du COVID-19 sur certains secteurs transformateurs au Rwanda et stratégies de relèvement, Kenya

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Eastern Africa Regional Development and

Business Delivery Office (RDGE)

Longonot Road Plot 11, Upper Hill,

P.O Box 4861 -00200, Nairobi – Kenya

Email : [email protected]

The African Development Bank hereby invites International Individual Consultants to indicate their interest in the following assignment: “Assessment of the short to long term impact of COVID-19 on selected Transformative Sectors in Rwanda and Recovery strategies”.

Context :

The development landscape in Rwanda has changed considerably since the adoption of the Vision 2020 in the year 2000. The progress made in less than two decades has given Rwandans much hope and belief to aspire for greater achievements. The National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) which is also the Seven Year Government Programme (7YGP) comes at a unique moment in the country’s development trajectory which will see the crossover from Vision 2020 towards Vision 2050. The main trust of the NST-1 is transformational development led by the private sector. This strategy is expected to lay the foundations for decades of sustained growth and transformation that will accelerate the move towards achieving high standards of living for all Rwandans. The NST 1 targets were already considered ambitious but achievable. Realizing this target will require strengthening collaboration and partnership among all stakeholders and enhancing ownership at all levels. Rwanda has achieved a significant progress in the past, building on the same principles while tapping into our home-grown solutions and values. However, with the advent of the COVID-19 and its devastating socio-economic impact, it is now reasonable to assume that achieving the NST-1 targets will be a daunting task, especially if the pandemic prolongs into 2021.

Rwanda has experienced strong and consistent growth. Despite shocks such as sudden decline in aid inflows in 2013 and global financial crisis in 2017 that resulted into annual growth of 4.7% and 4% respectively, annual growth has averaged about 7% between 2009 and 2019. On the supply side, service sector has been the main driver of growth. The service sector accounts for the largest share of output, averaging 49% of GDP over last ten years. Agriculture and industry have accounted for an average of 25% and 17% of GDP respectively in the same period. Growth in Industry has been mainly driven by mining and construction while manufacturing output has remained relatively subdued. But the trend was completely reversed due to the global COVID 19 pandemic. After two decades of consistent robust growth averaging 8%, preliminary projections point to a drastic deceleration in real GDP growth. Under the baseline scenario, real GDP growth is projected to decelerate from 9.4 percent in 2019 to 3.7 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021, lower than the 8.0 percent projected prior to the outbreak of the pandemic. All sectors of the economy have been negatively impacted, but tourism and related services will bear the greatest brunt. The current account deficit is projected to deteriorate significantly to16.8 percent of GDP in 2020 compared to initial projection of 9.1 percent due to a sharp decline in external flows and a marked decline in export revenues. Headline inflation is projected to rise to 7.1 percent as against 5.2 percent originally projected for 2020 due to supply shortages of imported goods and fiscal loosening in response to the pandemic. The protracted crisis will mount pressure on the exchange rate as gross reserves reduce closer to 2.9 months of imports in 2020 against 4.3 months in 2018.

Rwanda’s monetary policy has been effective in supporting growth while preserving macroeconomic stability. Inflation has been maintained within policy objectives (5%) for most of the time, except for a few years where increases were mainly driven by climate and food supply shocks such as in 2011, 2016, and 2019 where inflation picked up to reach 8.3%, 7.3%, and 6.3% respectively. Due to the COVID -19 Pandemic, it is projected to average at 7.1 in 2020 against 5.2 that was originally projected. While Rwanda has a floating exchange rate, BNR has occasionally intervened at the forex market by selling forex. This has helped to manage exchange rate depreciation within reasonable limits mainly to contain inflationary pressures from imports. Nevertheless, Rwandan Franc has depreciated by around 40% (in nominal terms) over last ten years. Rwanda’s fiscal space to finance growth and development is constrained. Rwanda’s impressive growth and development milestones has required significant investment across EDPRSI & II priorities. The ambitious investment needs have progressively constrained GoR’s finances. Despite improvements in tax collections, tax-to-GDP ratio has stagnated at around 16%. ODA has significantly declined over time. As a result, public debt has consistently increased with the debt-to-GDP ratio currently at 59% of GDP. As a result, the budget deficit is expected to deteriorate from earlier projection of 6.8 percent to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2020 and to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by increased spending on health and relief and low tax revenue collection. According to latest DSA jointly conducted by the IMF and World Bank in June 2020, while Rwanda’s debt remains sustainable, the risk of external and overall debt distress has moved to moderate from low relative to the previous DSA in April 2020 due to the impact of the global COVID-19 crisis

The social protection related fiscal measures combined with the additional health costs of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to significantly expand public expenditure levels thereby narrowing down the fiscal space. Based on preliminary information, the IMF and the authorities projected the total cost of the Pandemic to amount to 3.4 percent of GDP over the next two years, including both revenue losses and increases in public spending— 1.9 and 1.5 percent of GDP, respectively. Public spending was expected to be equally allocated between measures to mitigate the health and economic impact of the Pandemic.

The first two cases of COVID-19 in Rwanda were registered on March 14, 2020, following which the authorities quickly took preventive measures together with social protection and economic policy responses. A broad range of social distancing measures were also announced. The government’s swift implementation of protective measures has limited the spread of the virus and prevented a significant strain on the health sector. As at third October 2020, total number of tests conducted stood at 502, 918 of which confirmed cases stood at 2,852 representing 0.01 percent infection rate of the tested sample. Number of fatalities stood at 29 (0.6% of positive tests) and 3211 (66% of cases) patients have fully recovered. The median age for the COVID-19 pandemic cases is 23 years and infections are highest among males (67 percent). Travel restrictions were eased on 4th May 2020. These had significant impact on the economy as articulated in earlier paragraphs.

The swift measures that the authorities took to prevent further transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic included the following: The government has acted fast and implemented a range of containment measures in response to the pandemic including border closure, suspension of domestic travel, cancellation of public gatherings, institution of teleworking, and closure of schools, places of worship and non-essential businesses. The Government has also stepped up its national preparedness capacity including enhancing the laboratory capacity which now can test over 700 samples daily. Hospital capacity to handle critical patients care for COVID-19 related illness has increased up to 67 beds which are well equipped with ventilators and ICU kits. Moreover, several isolation centers for quarantining suspected COVID-19 patients that are identified through the contact tracing process but still asymptomatic have been identified across all the districts in the country.

Authorities also took several complementary policy measures to reduce the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic. The Cabinet decisions to reopen the economy which were announced on May 4 2020 and updated on 2nd June 2020 reflects a flexible and cautious strategy that seeks to sustain low levels of transmission while society and economic activity gradually resumes.

Development partners including the AfDB are providing support both in terms of rapid reprogramming of existing activities to align to the imperatives of the COVID-19 economic response and recovery, as well as in the form of rapid technical assistance to assess and identify challenges and solutions. Some examples to highlight include: The Bank approved a Crisis Response PBO of USD 98 million on 22 June 2020. On May 8, The IMF approved the disbursement of US$109.4 million and US$111.06 million (SDR80.1 million), in April and June 2020 respectively under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) bringing the total IMF COVID-19 emergency support to Rwanda to US$ 220.46 million to help urgent balance of payment needs stemming from the pandemic, the WB approved a loan of US$ 14.25 million COVID-19 Emergency Response Project (support to Health plan); an additional US$9.2 million COVID-19 Education Response Project and US$100 million as Supplemental Budget Support ; the UN Family planned contribution amounted to US$5.09; and EU is reprogramming approximately EUR 52 million toward food security and social protection measures.

Against this background, and cognizant of the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic’s socio-economic impact on Rwanda, going forward, the new CSP will scale up Bank support in Rwanda that address key sector specific challenges, as well as policy advice and technical assistance that build resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic and future outbreaks, while enhancing economic transformation. These objectives will be realized through continued institutional and human capacity building including in the health sector, while at the same time focusing on priority areas that enhance structural transformation in the country, reduce environmental and climate change vulnerability and foster resilience.

In this regard, the Bank is planning to undertake a knowledge product that will critically assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the selected key sectors of the economy and identify policy options that will enhance opportunities for sustainable economic recovery and transformation. Based on the consultations with the country, the COVID-19 related assessments by the Bank and other institutions, the recent Government’s national budget documents, the proposed evidence-based assessment will focus on the following key productive sectors and drivers of the economy: (i) Agriculture sector; (ii) Manufacturing; and (iii) skills development through TVET. To deliver a high quality and policy relevant and evidenced based knowledge product, the Bank is seeking to recruit a competent and highly qualified international consultant who will work in close collaboration with a local consultant.

The Assignment :

Under the supervision of the Lead Economist and the management of the Country Economist, the International Consultant will perform the following tasks :

1. Exhaustively examine, using an appropriate methodology, the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on identified on the following key productive sectors and drivers of the economy: (i) Agriculture sector; (ii) Manufacturing; and (iii) skills development through ;
2. Assess the disruptions caused in global trade and supply chains; in order to propose realistic strategic options for the rapid revival of these sectors and drivers ;
3. Undertake a succinct impact assessment of fiscal measures and other programs implemented under the existing government response plan. The impact evaluation will also be carried out from a gender sensitive perspective ;
4. Assess the immediate and medium-term effects of the pandemic and the response plan on economic growth and on the identified productive sectors; including loss of productivity and employment or disruption of livelihoods, and gender dimensions ;
5. Carry out simulations of policy options and analysis of the potential impacts of the response plan and policies to guide policy dialogue in the sectors concerned ;
6. Based on the results of the analysis and impact assessment, provide advisory support and recommendations to guide the development of appropriate policies or strategic options for the recovery at sectoral and national levels ;
7. Develop strategic options and socio-economic action plan in the selected productive sectors to facilitate decision-making for post-COVID economic recovery and resilience, in line with the country’s vision 2033.

To facilitate credible data collection and consultation exercises, the international constant will be supported by a local consultant/expert who will be recruited for this assignment. Both consultants are expected to work together on a day to day basis.

Qualifications and Experience : The consultant must be fluent in English and should have the following qualifications:

1. A PhD degree in Economics, Public Finance, Public Policy or related disciplines from a recognized university ;
2. A minimum of 18 (eighteen) years relevant professional experience, of which at least 10 years is related to similar assignment on evidence-based knowledge work focused on economic policy research ;
3. Knowledge of the workings of shocks and policy responses in the context of an insufficiently diversified economy, particularly in a small landlocked economy will be an advantage ;
4. Outstanding competence in the use of Bank standard software (Word, Excel, Access, PowerPoint) and econometric software such as STATA and Eviews ;
5. Analytical skills, including strong understanding of econometrics and identification of data needs with sources, with a demonstrated knowledge of deriving policy recommendations from such products. Samples of such work can be attached with applications ;
6. Ability to work in a multi-cultural environment and to build effective working relations with government entities or different stakeholders (colleagues, private sector, Development Finance Institutions, academia, etc.) with ability to multitask and meet tight deadlines ;
7. Demonstrated experience of data collection, processing, analysis and report writing, and communication; with evidence of similar work done in the past on issues of shocks and economic recovery strategies ;
8. Prior experience in an international or regional development institutions including the AfDB with a satisfactory delivery will also be an advantage ;
9. Knowledge of the context and of the development issues of the private sector in Rwanda, at institutional, legislative and regulatory levels, would be an asset ;
10. Knowledge of gender mainstreaming in development interventions would be an advantage;

Eligibility, deliverables and duration of the assignment :

The eligibility criteria, the establishment of a shortlist and the selection procedure must comply with the Bank’s rules and procedures for the recruitment of consultants. Please note that the interest expressed by a consultant does not imply any obligation on the part of the Bank to include the consultant in the shortlist.

The service, under this assignment, will involve consultancy services for a period of four (4) months (80 working days). Remuneration will be in accordance with Bank’s rates and the qualification and experience of the consultant. The successful consultant is expected to start the work as soon as the selection process is completed, and the contract signed.

As part of his assignment, the consultant will provide the following deliverables: i) Inception report presenting the conceptual framework, detailed methodology, and the distribution of tasks of the international consultant and national consultant; ii) Draft complete report accepted by the Bank and the relevant government Agencies; iii) Proposed options for the recovery framework and policy; and iv) A final report of the study incorporating the comments received and approved by the Bank (max. 45 pages).

Interested individual consultants can obtain further information at the address below during Bank working hours: 8:00 am to 5:00 pm.

Expressions of interest accompanied by an updated Curriculum Vitae (CV) must be received only by email to the addresses provided below no later than November 19, 2020 at 5:00 m. (Nairobi time) and specifically mentioning: International Consultant for the “Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 on Selected Transformative Sectors and Recovery Strategies in the

Republic of Rwanda”.

For the attention of:

Ms. Brenda Wanjira,

African Development Bank

East Africa Regional Development and Business Delivery Office (RDGE)

Khushee Towers Longonot Road Plot 11, Upper Hill

P.O. Box 4861-00200 Nairobi, Kenya

Email: [email protected]

With a copy to Dr. Marcellin Ndong Ntah ([email protected]) and Mr. Yusuf Bob Foday ([email protected])

Establishment of the shortlist :  A shortlist of three to six individual consultants will be established once the expressions of interest and the updated CV have been received. The shortlisted consultants will be evaluated on the following criteria based on their updated CVs. Shortlisted candidates may be invited to send in their technical proposals and comments on the assignment.

in using the relevant econometric methods and relevant software, knowledge of the context and issue of selected sectors in Rwanda, including the institutional, legal and regulatory environment;

Language proficiency : (Excellent command of written and oral of English; Additional knowledge of French would be an advantage) 10