Recrutement d’un consultant pour l’appui à la préparation de la note de diagnostic pays, du rapport d’achèvement du document de stratégie pays (DSP) 2015-2021, de l’examen de la performance du portefeuille pays (CPPR) et du nouveau DSP 2022-2026, Guinée Bissau

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

FOR AN INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANT

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

WEST AFRICA REGIONAL DEPARTMENT (RDGW)

Title of the assignment : Support in the Preparation of the Country Diagnostic Note, Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2015-2021 Completion Report, Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR) and New CSP 2022-2026

Brief description of the Assignment :

Guinea-Bissau’s GDP growth was interrupted in 2018, caused by lower cashew prices, its main economic driver. GDP growth outlook for 2020, initially estimated at 5%, was revised to -1.5% in the baseline scenario and -3.1% in the worst case because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reduced cashew nut price and volume caused by lower international demand are the main factor for growth revision. Guinea-Bissau’s economy is overly dependent on agriculture, specifically cashew nuts exports. Growth prospects are better for 2021, at 2.1% and 2.0% in the baseline and worse scenario, respectively. This improved is due to the resume of exports to India and Vietnam, main destinations for cashew nuts.

The economic outlook is highly uncertain due to political instability and volatile cashew prices. Guinea-Bissau is at a stage of development far below its potential. Tourism lacks infrastructure, agriculture is poorly diversified and industry is practically non-existent. These affects macroeconomics accounts since the country imports almost everything it consumes and public investments are highly dependent on foreign aid. The country needs to reevaluate its economic structure to diversify its economy.

On 31 August 2020, the Board of the African Development Bank approved the updated and extension of Guinea-Bissau’s 2015-2019 Country Strategy Paper (CSP) for 2-years, up to December 2021. This would allow the country to pursue a new strategic plan aiming economic recuperation after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second quarter of 2021 the Bank will start a new process to design the new CSP 2022-2026 which will draw lessons and policies recommendations from the Country Diagnostic Note (CDN). This assignment is critical as it will provide a comprehensive assessment of key constraints to economic growth and structural transformation and help guide the choice of appropriate pillars for the new strategy, in line with the High 5s and the country’s new national development strategy.

Department issuing the request : West Africa Regional Department (RDGW)

Place of assignment : From country of residence of the Consultant

Duration of the assignment : 132 days non-consecutive days.

Tentative Date of commencement : 01st March 2021

Deadline for applications : 10^th February 2021 at 17:00 (GMT)

Applications to be submitted to : Ms. Simone Cuiabano ([email protected]) with copy to Mr. Blaise Nkamleu ([email protected]) Any questions and requests for clarifications may be sent to : Ms. Simone Cuiabano ([email protected])

Terms of Reference for : “Support in the Preparation of the Country Diagnostic Note, Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2015-2021 Completion Report, Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR) and New CSP 2022-2026”

1. Objectives of the Assignment

The objective of this assignment is to support the preparation the Country Diagnostic Note (CDN) that will inform the design of a new Strategy for Guinea-Bissau for the period 2022-2026. This assignment is critical as it will provide a comprehensive assessment of key constraints to economic growth and structural transformation and help guide the choice of appropriate pillars for the new strategy, in line with the High 5s and the country’s new national development strategy (Hora Tchiga). The COVID-19 outbreak brought a new challenge to the already fragile economy – the CDN therefore aims to draft policies alternatives to pull the country out of the challenging perspectives of low growth, high poverty and political fragility.

2. Main activities and deliverables : 

• Collect all available information considered necessary for the preparation of the Country Diagnostic Note for Guinea-Bissau, including assessments and program documents related to the macroeconomic and social context prepared by the Bank, the Government and other Development Partners (for example: the African Economic Outlook; Household surveys and poverty analysis, IMF article IV assessments, mission reports, PEFA, etc.) ;

• Write and finalize the Country Diagnostic Note including the comprehensive assessment of the country’s current growth model, sector challenges, propose a new growth model to pull the country out of the poverty trap and a quantitative assessment of this model ;

• Support the processing of the CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR and PowerPoint Presentation with proposed pillars, new CSP 2022-2026 Report until Board presentation ;

• Second the Country Economist with the work in carrying out the CSP 2015-2021 and CPPR mission and the new CSP 2022-2026 dialogue mission with the authorities and prepare the report outlining the main mission findings ;

• Provide written responses to any questions arising from the various stages of internal review and processing of the Country Diagnostic Note.

3. Administration/reporting :

The selected Consultant is expected to work independently from his/her home country and report to the AfDB Country Economist in charge of Guinea-Bissau (Ms. Simone Cuiabano – email : [email protected]).

4. Duration of the assignment :

The consultancy will be on a temporary basis for a period of 240 non-consecutive days and for a period of 6-month from March 01^st, 2021 to September 01^st, 2021.

5. Qualifications and Experience required :

Education : Advanced university degree (minimum Masters degree) in Economics or any related field or discipline;

Work Experience : Relevant work experience of at least 10 years in economic policy analysis;

Languages : Excellent spoken and written English or French and Portuguese.

Other Skills :

• Experience in preparation of policy documents and country or sector strategies, project identification/ preparation ;
• Previous experience in consulting for a bilateral and/or multilateral setting in Africa would be an asset ;
• Previous experience in statistical macro modelling would be an asset ;
• Experience of Guinea-Bissau or previous experience in African Lusophone speaking countries would be a comparative advantage.

6. Selection criteria :

Proposals will be evaluated based on the below selection criteria.

Only the proposals scoring of 70 points or above shall be considered for this assignment. All the consultants shall be ranked and the highest ranked. Consultant will be selected for the said assignment if his/her fees are within budget limits.

7. Remuneration :

The estimated budget for this assignment is USD 30.000,00 lump-sum payment as follows :

• 25% upon submission of the first draft CDN ;
• 10% upon submission of the draft CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR ;
• 25% upon submission and approval by CODE of final CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR and PPT pillars and validation of CSP report by the Bank:
• 20% upon submission to the Bank of draft new CSP 2022-2026 ;
• 20% upon submission and approval by Board of final CSP 2022-2026.

Please attach an updated Curriculum vitae on the basis of the template below:

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MODEL CURRICULUM VITAE – AFDB BAD PDF

GUINEA-BISSAU: TERMS OF REFERENCE

Consultant – – Support in the Preparation of the Country Diagnostic Note, Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2015-2021 Completion Report, Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR) and New CSP 2022-2026

1. Country context and outlook :

Guinea-Bissau’s GDP growth was interrupted in 2018, caused by lower cashew prices, its main economic driver. GDP growth outlook for 2020, initially estimated at 5%, was revised to -1.5% in the baseline scenario and -3.1% in the worst case because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reduced cashew nut price and volume caused by lower international demand are the main factor for growth revision. Guinea-Bissau’s economy is overly dependent on agriculture, specifically cashew nuts exports. Growth prospects are better for 2021, at 2.1% and 2.0% in the baseline and worse scenario, respectively. This improved is due to the resume of exports to India and Vietnam, main destinations for cashew nuts.

Budget balance prospects were revised from a deficit of -3.1% to -4.5% in 2020, mainly because of the downfall of cashew nut exports and the economic lockdown. Cashew trade is an important source of public revenue, representing 9% of total revenue. Other important sources are grants and fishery licenses. A slight improvement on budget deficit is expected in 2021, to -4.1%.

Lower international oil prices may counterbalance the negative effect of COVID-19 on trade balance. Nonetheless, exports prospects are not favorable. Current account deficit, estimated at -3.3%, was revised to -7.3% in 2020, in the baseline scenario, and -8.0% in a worst case. Current account balance will recover in 2021, to -5.9% and -6.4% in both scenarios, conditioned to the recuperation of exports. Sluggish domestic demand caused by reduced income will cause a reduction of domestic prices in 2020.

CPI inflation, estimated at 2.2% in 2020, was revised to 0.9%. Economic recuperation is expected to increase prices in 2021, bringing inflation rate to 1.6% in the baseline scenario and 1.9% in the worst case. The country is a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), whose common currency, the West African CFA franc, has an exchange rate fixed to the euro. Inflation and exchange rate are expected to remain stable due to WAEMU criteria.

Guinea-Bissau is one of the 10 least prepared countries to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, accordingly to the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) ranked 186 out of 195 countries. It has the second-worst health system score, right behind Somalia. The country performed poorly in all prevention-related subcategories except for vaccination rates. The country lacks ICU bed and available ICU equipment, as well as the HR capacity. Since no center for isolation is operational, people tested positive are living with their families, which can propagate the contagion.

The economic outlook is highly uncertain due to political instability and volatile cashew prices. Guinea-Bissau is at a stage of development far below its potential. Tourism lacks infrastructure, agriculture is poorly diversified and industry is practically non-existent. These affects macroeconomics accounts since the country imports almost everything it consumes and public investments are highly dependent on foreign aid. The country needs to reevaluate its economic structure to diversify its economy.

Implementation of AfDB’s Country Strategy and Program in Guinea-Bissau (2015-2021)

The Board of Directors of the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) approved, on January 28,

2015, the AfDB’s Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2015-2019 for Guinea-Bissau, focusing on two pillars: (i) strengthening governance and state foundations; and (ii) infrastructure development supporting inclusive growth. On 31 August 2020, the Board approved the updated and extension of this strategy up to December 2021.

During consultations with the Government of Guinea-Bissau in October 2019, it was agreed that the 2015-19 Country Strategy Paper could be extended in light of the Presidential elections realized at the end of 2019. The extension of the actual strategy would allow political developments in Guinea-Bissau to take their course and the Government, in accordance with the new elected President, to consolidate its development plan and ensure ownership of the new CSP.

The 2015-2019 CSP update and 2-years extension was prepared in a context characterized by a political unrest caused by the end of mandate of President Jose Mario Vaz and Presidential elections held on 24 November 2019 and on 29 December 2019. The National Electoral Commission (CNE) announced provisional results, indicating victory of gal. Sissoco Embaló (Madem G-15). In the sequence, the opposition party (PAIGC) filed a complaint with the Supreme Court of Justice (STJ), claiming electoral fraud and challenging the results. Without waiting for the official decision, Gel. Sissoco Embalo promoted his own symbolic investiture on 27 February 2020, worsening the institutional scenario. The international community officially recognized Mr. Embalo as President on 23 April 2020, one month after the first diagnosed COVID-19 cases and the imposition of lockdown measures. Guinea-Bissau’s political scenario was a challenge for the strategy implementation: from 2015 to today, Guinea-Bissau experienced many political crisis, the latest involving the results of presidential elections by the end of 2019. Growth prospects for 2020 are compromised by the political situation and the COVID-19 outbreak.

Despite the political crisis, the economic growth rate maintained a constant trend during the 2015-2019 period, keeping an average of 5.4% growth. The GDP growth outlook for 2019 and 2020 was projected to average 5%; however, growth prospects for 2020 was revised to -3.0% in the worst case scenario because of the pandemic. Guinea-Bissau’s economy remains fragile and instable and it is among countries with low human development. In 2019, it was ranked 178th out of 189 countries according to the UNDP human development index.

Overall, performance results of the Bank interventions during the CSP 2015-19 were satisfactory as most of the targeted outputs and outcomes have been achieved or were in progress. Despite the challenging operating environment in Guinea-Bissau, characterized by lack of financial and human resources and exacerbated by protracted political instability, the Bank made significant strides to improve portfolio implementation and performance. “Flagged” projects were reduced, turning the portfolio to “green status” by September 2019 (15% of flagged projects only). Total commitments increased from UA 61.05 million in 2015 to UA 83.7 million in 2019. Disbursement rates picked up from 10% in 2015 to 20% in 2019. This notwithstanding, the efficiency of Bank’s operations remains a concern.

The Bank is in a process of preparation of the Country Diagnostic Note (CDN) that will inform the design of a new CSP 2022-2026. This assignment is critical as it will provide a comprehensive assessment of key constraints to economic growth and structural transformation and help guide the choice of appropriate pillars for the new strategy, in line with the High 5s and the country’s new national development strategy (Hora Tchiga). The COVID-19 outbreak brought a new challenge to the already fragile economy – the CDN therefore aims to draft policies alternatives to pull the country out of the challenging perspectives of low growth, high poverty and political fragility.

Duties and responsibilities of the Consultant :

Under the overall guidance of the Deputy-Director General (RDGW) and the immediate supervision of the Lead Economist (ECCE) and the Senior Country Economist (ECCE)/Task Manager in charge of Guinea-Bissau, the Consultant is responsible for providing the following support :

• Collect all available information considered necessary for the preparation of the technical, economical, financial, and institutional aspects relevant for the preparation of the Country Diagnostic Note for Guinea-Bissau. This information includes assessments and program documents related to the macroeconomic and social context prepared by the Bank, the Government and other Development Partners (for example: the African Economic Outlook; Household surveys and poverty analysis, IMF article IV assessments, mission reports, PEFA, etc.) ;

• Write and finalize the Country Diagnostic Note including the comprehensive assessment of the country’s current growth model, sector challenges, propose a new growth model to pull the country out of the poverty trap and a quantitative assessment of this model. The document must include an abstract, summary and annexes, in conformity with the Bank’s standard format ;

• Prepare and discuss with relevant authorities the design of the Country Diagnostic Note with respect to the strategic alignment, rationale for the choice of the pillars of the new CSP and relevance of the pipeline of projects ;

• Support the processing of the CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR and PowerPoint Presentation with proposed pillars, new CSP 2022-2026 Report until Board presentation ;

• Second the Country Economist with the work in carrying out the CSP 2015-2021 and CPPR mission and the new CSP 2022-2026 dialogue mission with the authorities and prepare the report outlining the main mission findings ;

• The Bank may further call upon the consultant to provide written responses to any questions arising from the various stages of internal review and processing of the Country Diagnostic Note. Such responses are considered to be within the duration of the contract, and no extra fees will be paid.

Organization of the Work :

The consultancy would be home-based with two missions to Guinea-Bissau, which may be virtual. The consultant will join the Country Diagnostic Note mission team led by the Task Manager on ten-day mission to Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, tentatively scheduled for mid-April 2021 and another one-week CSP country dialogue mission initially scheduled for July 2021. The mission will hold discussions with relevant authorities and the donor community to collect the information required for the preparation of the CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report, the Country Portfolio Performance Review and the new Country Strategy Paper 2022-2026. It will hold introductory and wrap-up meetings with stakeholders to ensure consensus on the strategy objectives, components, and activities and to ensure alignment with the country’s national strategy plan as well as complementarity with other development partners interventions. The consultant is expected to work independently and report to the AfDB Country Economist in charge of Guinea-Bissau (Ms. Simone Cuiabano – email : [email protected]).

Reporting and deliverables :

The Consultant will work under the overall guidance of Mr. Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, Director, ECCE, and report to Mr. Blaise Nkamleu, Lead Economist, ECCE, and Ms. Simone Cuiabano, Senior Country Economist/Task Manager, ECCE.

He/she is expected to assist in the preparation of : 

• A draft of the Country Diagnostic Note (CDN), acceptable to the Bank, to be cleared for peer review by ECCE ;

• A final version of the CDN with the quantitative assessment for the growth model, followed by a comprehensive database and the quantitative simulations files cleared by ECCE ;

• A draft of the CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR, as well as the a draft of the new CSP 2022-2026 Report, acceptable to the Bank, to be cleared for peer review by ECCE days after the completion of the mission. The final version of the CSP Completion Report, PowerPoint presentation of the new pillars and the new CSP 2022-2026 cleared by the Country Team and CODE will constitute the last deliverables of the consultant ;
• At the time of conclusion of the assignment, the consultant’s output will be evaluated based on the following criteria: (i) professional competence; (ii) analytical reasoning and communication skills ;
• Reliability; and (iv) output and quality of work produced.

V.Competencies of the Consultant :

The consultant should meet the following qualifications :

• Academic skills (minimum Master degree) and over 10 years of relevant work experience in economic policy analysis ;

• Experience in preparation of policy documents and country or sector strategies, project identification/ preparation ;

• Previous experience in consulting for a bilateral and/or multilateral setting in Africa would be an asset ;

• Previous experience in statistical macro modelling would be an asset ;

• Excellent spoken and written English or French and Portuguese ;

• Experience of Guinea-Bissau or previous experience in African Lusophone speaking countries would be a comparative advantage.

Duration, Indicative Work Programme and Payments :

The consultant will work for 132 non-consecutive working days spread between 01^st March 2021 till 01^st September 2021. The consultant is expected to start working immediately.

The Consultant must be immediately available for the entire duration of the assignment.

For each field mission, the Bank will provide to the Consultant, one (1) air ticket based on Bank travel rules as follows: Place of Residence – Bissau – Place of Residence. The consultant is expected to indicatively spend his time as follows :

The consultant is expected to indicatively spend his time as follows :

• Country Diagnostic Note: 30 days ;

• Review of CDN after comments: 15 days ;

• CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR mission reports: 30 days ;

• Drafting of CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR and PPT pillars: 30 days ;

• Review of CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR and PPT pillars: 15 days ;

• Drafting of new CSP 2022-2026: 50 days ;

• Review of new CSP 2022-2026: 15 days ;

• New CSP 2022-2026 dialogue mission and report: 20 days ;

• Final review of the CSP 2022-2026 Report: 35 days.

Submission and approval by CODE of final CSP 2015-2021 Completion Report and CPPR