Recrutement d’un consultant pour mener une étude sur les dépenses de sécurité et leur impact sur l’accumulation de la dette dans les pays du G5 Sahel

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR AN INDIVIDUAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CONSULTANT

African Development Bank

Strategy and Operational Policies Department (SNSP)

and

Transition States Coordination Office (RDTS)

Rue Joseph Anoma,

01 BP 1387 Abidjan 01

Cote d’Ivoire

Brief Description of the Assignment : The Strategy and Operational department (SNSP) jointly with the Transition States Coordination Office (RDTS) of the African Development Bank invites Individual Consultants to indicate their interest in the following Assignment : Consultant to conduct a study on security expenditure and its resulting impact on debt accumulation in the G5 Sahel Countries.

The services to be provided under this assignment include measuring the share of defense and security expenditure and its evolution over the period 2010-2019 in the Sahel region and determining the existence of a correlation between the evolution of this expenditure and the rising level of debt. The consultant will be responsible for conducting a multi-country analysis to better understand how such military expenditure is financed and assess the long-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic on debt accumulation in the region.

The eligibility criteria, the establishment of a short list and the selection procedure shall be in conformity with the Bank’s Procurement Policy for Recruitment of Corporate Consultants. Please, note that interest expressed by a Consultant does not imply any obligation on the part of the Bank to include him/her in the shortlist.

The Consultant’s assignment may be modified for other related tasks so long as they are consistent with his/her qualification and experience.

Departments issuing the request : SNSP and RDTS

Place of assignment : Given the Covid-19 pandemic, the consultant will telecommute until when normal business can resume

Duration of the assignment : 60 working days over a five (5) months period August 3, 2020

Tentative Date of commencement :

Deadline for applications : July 17, 2020 at 17:00 GMT

Detailed Terms of reference for the assignment : See below

Applications to be submitted by email only to : [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

interested consultants are invited to submit a CV and Cover Letter.

Any questions and requests for clarifications may be sent to : [email protected]; [email protected];

Terms of Reference

1. BACKGROUND :

One of the most prominent global macroeconomic developments in recent years has been the upsurge and perseverance of large deficits and government debt. These developments have elevated fears regarding debt sustainability with the potential consequences of debt monetisation that initiates inflation and austerity measures that bring about extensive economic costs, making countries susceptible to economic crises.

In the case of the Sahel countries, where conflict and insecurity are permanent, it becomes increasingly obvious that these countries are heavily dependent on debt to finance their military expenditure. Sahelian countries face a significant security threat, forcing them to devote an increasing proportion of their budgets to security spending (military and police). Nevertheless, they remain low in the light of needs and they are expected to increase. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2013 and 2018, military spending nearly quadrupled in Mali, increased by 2.5 times in Niger, and doubled in Burkina Faso. This historically high level is explained in particular by the specific context of the Sahelian countries: low population density, large areas, high logistical costs, import of equipment, asymmetric nature of threats, etc. As the budgets of the Sahelian States face particular constraints due to the dual Covid-19 health crisis and the economic fallout resulting from the measures they are taking to combat it, the financing of these expenditures requires budgetary trade-offs between security spending and expenditures geared towards eradicating the economic and social causes of the pandemic. Given the current state of public finances across the Sahel region, this additional financing gap would most likely be filled through debt accumulation, in the backdrop of tightening global financial conditions and capital flow reversal.

The African Development Bank Group recognizes that strengthening debt management capacity and analytical tools for debt management in Africa in general and in the Sahel region in particular remains a priority, and requires up-front country ownership and political commitment, as well as commitment from donors and technical assistance providers. In line with its mandate and comparative advantage, the Bank has been a strategic and close partner for the Sahelian countries over the past years. The Bank Group’s interventions in the region focus on building resilience in key areas such as agriculture, WASH, energy and climate change, youth employment and entrepreneurship, and regional integration. Its broader focus on strengthened institutions and good governance are central to addressing drivers of fragility in the region and promoting stability and resilience.

In view of the continuing increase in military expenditure in the region and its impact on debt accumulation, there is a need for reliable statistics on the public expenditure of member States in the areas of security and development, as well as analytical work on the nexus between military expenditure and debt. This will enable the Bank to better tailor its overall program and specific interventions to address debt vulnerabilities, taking into account the specific challenges of the countries. This is particularly important today in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic from which many G5 Sahel countries will emerge from the current virus-driven economic crisis even more indebted and financially stressed than before.

Within this context and taking advantage of the various analytical work undertaken by the Bank with respect to the development challenges of the Sahel region, the Bank through its Corporate Strategy and Operational Policy Department (SNSP) and the Transition States Coordination Office (RDTS) is commissioning a study on security expenditure and its resulting effect on debt accumulation in the Sahel region. The assignment to be performed by an individual consultant will take cognizance of recent development such as the short-term, medium-term and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and will contribute to better fit the Bank’s response to the Sahel countries’ needs. The outcome of the diagnosis should lead to operational recommendations for the implementation of public policies that meet the basic human development needs of Sahelians.

2. OBJECTIVES FOR THE PROPOSED STUDY :

SNSP plays a key role in shaping a corporate vision and strategic perspective for the Bank Group as well as developing the operational policies aimed at guiding the Bank’s development agenda. Reporting directly to the Senior Vice President, it works across the institution, helping to ensure strategic and policy focus in decision-making, and the improved alignment of resources with strategic priorities. More specifically, SNSP advises the president and Senior Management on strategy and policy emerging issues that can affect both its client’s needs and the Bank’s efforts in effectively delivering its operational priorities.

RDTS’s mission is to coordinate the Bank’s support to its Regional Member Countries (RMCs) affected by conflict and fragility in order to enable them to transit out of fragility and develop viable plans for achieving resilience and long-term development that is inclusive and widely shared, thus laying the foundation for social and economic transformation.

Accordingly, SNSP, jointly with RDTS, is seeking to recruit a consultant with the main objective of identifying and assessing the correlation between the evolution of military expenditures in the Sahel and debt accumulation. Moreover, the study would include an analysis of the long-term impact of the current covid-19 pandemic on debt sustainability and provide strategic guidance on the urgent policy and institutional reforms alongside required investments to support national measures in response to the COVID-19. In the same vein, the study will propose new and innovative ways of how the Bank can support security sector reforms (SSR) in the Sahel.

3. SCOPE OF THE CONSULTANCY :

The consultant will work with the Task team to identify the determinants of military expenditures in Sahel countries, and how these expenditures influence debt accumulation and management. Taking advantage of the various analytical work undertaken by the Bank with respect to the development challenges of the Sahel region, the report should (i) provide a better understanding of the nexus between military expenditures and debt accumulation; (ii) highlight the suitability of different approaches to security sector reforms that focuses on the defense sector and cross-cutting governance issues in order to obtain results for the Bank’s intervention in the Sahel; and (iii) analyze the long term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on debt build up in the region.

The scope of the work shall include but not be limited to :

• Review literature on the increased defense and security spending in the Sahel ;
• Examines the links between elevated debt levels and rising military expenditures in the Sahel region, and offers a menu of policy options ;
• Review all current statistics on public debt in the region to allow full assessment of debt vulnerabilities and contingent liabilities ;
• Assess the important distinctions among countries in the region with different conditions that are likely to influence the causes of military military-sector expenditures ;
• Analyze the impact of existing governance – especially in the fields of demography and security – on debt management across the region and come up with a concrete guidance on how government officials and other stakeholders can take these cross-cutting governance issues into account and better calibrate their approaches to reforms ;
• Assess the debt management strengths of all Sahel countries as well as areas in need of reform and make initial cross-country comparisons as relevant ;
• Engagement with the Government Ministries responsible for coordinating initiatives in the Sahel and other relevant agencies to define the framework and enabling environment for sustainable public policies that address inequalities ;
• Develop clear guidance on how to encourage proper public debt reporting as well as sound management of public debt ;
• Carry out a clear mapping of the financing source of military expenditures and undertake inter-country comparisons over time ;
• Identify and propose debt instruments with state-contingent risk-sharing features that could help Sahel countries better manage risks ;
• Identify key issues for the development of responsibilities and procedures for auditing and evaluating public debt ;
• Develop recommendations to improve debt management information management systems in Sahel States ;
• Make recommendations on how the Bank can support in building the capacity of the Sahel states to manage debt and public finances, and enhance transparency and information sharing on military expenditure ;
• Enhance awareness among governments of the Sahel region, development partners as well as private sector on the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic for debt accumulation in the region.

4. METHODOLOGY/APPROACH OF STUDY :

The work is expected to be based on a detailed desk review of the core determinants of rising military expenditures in the Sahel region and its resulting impact on debt accumulation. In order to perform the assignment, the retained consultant would have to combine qualitative and quantitative research work.

The desk review (qualitative research) shall be conducted by the consultant, which will help assess the relevant literature and make correspondences for the collection and compilation of data that will be made available from concerned countries, internal department units and regional and/or field offices as well as other concerned institutions. Besides this, the consultant will also examine the correlation between military expenditure and debt accumulation through modelling and/or statistical analysis.

More specifically, the consultant will be expected to perform the following main tasks :

• Conduct a comprehensive literature review that will inform the study ;
• Collect accurate data on security expenditure and debt of the G5 countries ;
• Review best practices and lessons learnt within and outside the continent that are relevant to inform policy makers in the kind of policy and institutional reforms to be pursued to address debt vulnerabilities in the region thus and close the information gap. Particular attention should be paid to the share of defense and security expenditure and its evolution over time ;
• Propose high level recommendations regarding the Bank’s response to its clients within the context of sustainable debt management needed to help Sahel countries’ pursuit of the SDGs ;
• Support the organizing of technical and/or information dissemination meetings through the preparation of PowerPoint presentations and other statistical or informational materials; and
• Ensure that all data collection tools are included as annexes to the final report. The link between evaluation questions, data collection, findings, analysis and conclusion must be clearly made and set out in a transparent manner in the presentation of the findings.

5. DELIVERABLES AND TIME SCHEDULE :

The expected key outcome of the study will be to provide a comprehensive outlook and report on the links between elevated debt levels and rising military expenditures in the Sahel region, and offers a menu of policy options.

The following are the key deliverables for this assignment :

A forward-looking report of maximum 40 pages (after incorporation of Bank’s final comments) in line with stated objectives above presenting the share of defense and security expenditure in the region and its evolution over time. The report should provide an analysis of the long-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on debt accumulation in the region. It should also include high-level strategic solutions/recommendations and an action plan for the Bank to achieve its development objectives, giving the impending developments and changing landscape.

An executive summary report, summarizing the full report and highlighting the key messages. PowerPoint presentations outlining the key findings and recommendations.

The consultancy assignment shall be over a period of 60 days, spread over 5 months, commencing 03 August 2020, and terminating no later than 31st December, 2020. However, these dates and those in the schedule of deliverables are indicative and may change depending on the Bank’s constrains

6. QUALIFICATIONS AND REQUIREMENTS :

SNSP and RDTS are looking for a proactive candidate who is committed and driven to deliver high quality outputs. The key selection criteria for the position include the following :

• Hold at least a Masters’ degree in Economics, Political Science, Social Sciences, International Relations, Organizational Development, Business Administration or related discipline ;
• Relevant knowledge with at least ten (10) years’ experience in public debt, encompassing the public and private sectors as well as proven work experience in countries affected by violence and conflict ;
• A good mastery of quantitative and qualitative methods in research ;
• Ability to work independently and as part of a team; well organized, and able to prioritize multiple tasks, while driving results ;
• Good knowledge of African economic and development issues ;
• Excellent analytical skills with in-depth knowledge of fragility and resilience issues in the Sahel region ;
• Good communication skills and ability to build effective working relationships in a diverse multicultural environment ;
• Communicate and write effectively in English or French, with a good working knowledge of the other language ;
• Competences in the use of standard Microsoft Office applications (Word, Excel, Access, PowerPoint) ;
• Be a national of one of the member countries ( regional or non-regional) of the Bank.

7. DURATION AND LOCATION OF THE ASSIGNMENT :

The consultancy is expected on a part-time basis for a period of 60 days, starting from 03 August 2020.

Given the Covid-19 pandemic, the consultant will telecommute until when normal business can resume.

8. REMUNERATION :

The Consultant will be paid according to his/her qualifications and commensurate with the African Development Bank’s Rules and Procedures for Recruitment and Remuneration of Consultants.

When necessary, per diem will be paid for days spent on missions as well as travel expenses where applicable, in line with the Bank’s Travel Policy for individual consultants. The consultant will have to obtain personal health insurance cover at their own cost. The coverage should include all medical expenses, including those resulting from illness or injury incurred during the duration of the assignment. Proof of insurance coverage will be provided to the Bank before the start of the assignment.

9. ADMINISTRATION/REPORTING :

The consultant shall report to the Director, SNSP. Day-to-day management of the consultancy shall be assured by a task manager designated by the SNSP Director and a co-task manager from RDTS.

10. Eligibility Criteria :

The position is open to nationals of one of the Member Countries of the AfDB. Interested applicants are requested to send an updated Curriculum Vitae (CV), a Cover Letter and specifically mentioning in the subject line “Individual Consultant conduct a study on security expenditure and its resulting impact on debt accumulation in the G5 Sahel Countries”

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and may be asked to participate in a skills assessment exercise.

11. REPORT LANGUAGE :

The consultant’s report will be drafted in English. The executive summary shall be translated into French.

12. Application and Evaluation Process :

Interested candidates are required to express their interest by submitting their CVs and Cover Letter detailing their qualifications and experiences to the email addresses provided on the Cover Page by July 17, 2020 at 17:00 GMT. The prospective consultants’ expression of interest will be evaluated based on the following criteria and weights:

Only consultants who will score more than 70% will be short-listed and invited to submit a financial proposal.