Recrutement d’un cabinet de conseil pour réaliser une enquête de compétences dans le sous-secteur des énergies renouvelables distribuées hors réseau (ERD), Côte d’Ivoire

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Human Capital Youth and Skills Development Department

Avenue Jean-Paul II, 01 BP 1387 Abidjan 01, Côte d’Ivoire

E-mail : [email protected] and [email protected]

RECRUITMENT OF CONSULTING FIRM TO UNDERTAKE A SKILLS SURVEY IN OFF-GRID DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY (DRE) SUB-SECTOR

1. The Education and Skills Development Division (AHHD1) within the African Development Bank’s Human Capital, Youth and Skills Development Department (AHHD) focuses on scaling-up of the Bank’s support to education, human capital and skills development. AHHD1, in partnership with other divisions in the Bank is planning to undertake a skills survey in the off-grid Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE) sector in three African countries including for now, Zambia and Sierra Leone. See attached TORs ;

2. In the respective targeted countries, the survey seeks to provide skills distribution, gaps, shortages and projections in the off-grid DRE industry and, among others, create a better understanding of :

• The currently available skill sets, skills shortages as well as skill gaps in the industry ;
• The critical and essential skills required for the industry ;
• Skills development in the sector including an assessment of training capacities (institutional and human) of institutions such as TVETs, colleges and universities; distribution and linkages of the training institutions curriculum with the industry demands ;
• Biases in skills distributions based on gender and location etc.;
• Possible areas of investments for the Bank to support the countries.

3. Consulting firms are hereby invited to express interest to undertake this planned survey. Some of the key expectations and deliverables from the Consultants, as outlined in the TORs, include the following :

• Work closely with key stakeholders: government (in particular ministries and departments responsible for education (and skills development) and energy as well as the national statistics bureau); in-country AfDB education and energy teams and other key stakeholders in the execution of the survey ;
• Critically review the TORs and work with the Bank team to clearly define and agree on the scope of work ;
• Provide an inception report which clearly and succinctly outlines the scope of the study and methodology (based on the TORs provided) ;
• Undertake the survey, whose timelines and deliverables, as defined in the TORs, have been split into two sequential phases ;
• Phase 1: Undertake a deep review and analysis of previous work, policy documents, secondary data, among others, and a develop a detailed report, of no more than 10 pages, that responds to the survey TORs/objectives/questions. The report will be deliverable exactly one month from the signing of the contract ;
• Phase 2: Leveraging on the efforts and results in phase 1, develop data collection tools, undertake data collection from key informants, analyze the data and develop a report that combines both the results from phase 1 and phase 2 and adequately responds to the TORs.

4. Interested Consulting firms are hereby invited to express their interest to undertake this work, clearly outlining their qualifications and experience to under the above tasks. They should provide, among others, information on their qualifications and experience demonstrating their ability to undertake the outlined tasks (documentation, references for similar services, experience in comparable assignments, availability of qualified staff, etc.). The required qualifications and expertise required are well defined in the TORs ;

5. The eligibility criteria, the establishment of a short list and the selection procedure will be subject to the Bank’s Rules and Procedure for the Use of Consultants. Please note that an expression of interest by a consulting firm does not imply any obligation on the part of the Bank for the firm to be included in the shortlist ;

6. The duration of services is 3 months and the estimated to start in mid-November, 2020 ;

7. Interested consulting firms may obtain further information at the address below during the Bank’s working hours (Monday to Friday 9:00 am to 5:00 pm GMT) ;

8. Expressions of interest must be received at the address below no later than October 30^th, 2020 at 11:59 PM GMT and specifically mentioning ‘Expression of Interest for the Skills Survey in Energy Sector.’

For the attention of :

Mr. Fredrick Wamalwa and Ms. Keiko Takei.

Human Capital Youth and Skills Development Department African Development Bank

Avenue Jean-Paul II, 01 BP 1387 Abidjan

Ivory Coast

E-mail : [email protected]  and [email protected]

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE

Education and Skills Development Division (AHHD1)

14^th October 2020

Background and Rationale :

1. Africa is a youthful continent with 75 per cent of its population estimated to be under the age of 35. By 2050, the continent’s youth, defined as people of 18 to 35 years, are projected to reach more than 800 million. This exponential rise in the youth population has not been met with a proportionate growth in job opportunities. It is estimated that over 10 million jobless youth are looking for work every year in Africa (Ighobor, 2017)¹ and that the region needs to create 12 -15 million jobs annually to absorb youth entering the labor market (Coulibaly et al, 2019).² However, given the limited job creation (only 3.1 million jobs are created annually), most of Africa’s youth are engaged in the informal sector (only one in six youth are in formal wage employment in Africa) that is characterized by low pay as well as limited social and legal protection ;

2. The energy sector and its associated value chains, has the potential to unlock a large source of new jobs for the unemployed youth. Africa’s off-grid Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE) industry is very promising. For instance, by 2015, more than 28.5 million people in the continent were already benefiting from access to electricity through solar lighting products (Lighting Africa, 2015).³ Around this time, over 0.3 million solar lighting systems were on the Kenyan market, a major leader in off-grid solar deployment, with private enterprises, such as M-KOPA (www.m-com), creating local jobs by providing solar lighting to millions of people (TERI, 2015). By 2022, off-grid DREs and associated value chains are projected to create 1.3 million direct jobs in East, West, and Central Africa, including entrepreneurs, technicians, distributors, and installers (Ferroukhi et al, 2019).⁴ In Nigeria, off-grid DRE systems accounted for 4,000 direct jobs in 2017/18, (10,000 jobs in the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning sector) with job projections expected to increase more than tenfold to 52,000 in 2022/23 (Power for All, 2019).⁵ 

• Ighobor K., 2017 “Africa’s jobless youth cast a shadow over economic growth,” Africa Renewal, Special Edition on Youth ;
• Coulibaly, B, et al. 2019, Job creation for youth in Africa: Assessing the employment intensity of industries without smokestacks. Brookings Institute. [Online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2019/12/16/job-creation-for-youth-in-africa-assessing-the-employment-intensity-of-industries-without-smokestacks/ ;
• Lighting Africa, 2015. Solar Lighting Products Improve Energy Access for 28.5 Million People in Africa. [Online] Available at : https://www.lighting africa.org/solar-lighting-products-improve-energy-access-for-28-5-millionpeople-in-africa/ (Accessed 09 September 2015) ;
• Ferroukhi, R., Renner M., García C. Baños, and B. Barua, 2019 “Renewable energy: A gender perspective,” International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi ;
• Power for All, 2019. Renewable Energy Jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia 2019 | Power for All.

3. The AfDB has been investing in off-grid DREs as part of the commitment to light up and power Africa. In 2019, AfDB approved an innovative multinational financing program for Distributed Energy Service Companies (DESCOs), aimed at ensuring that by 2025, close to 900,000 households in sub-Saharan Africa – about 4.5 million people – gain access to solar power. The program was aimed at facilitating local financing for DESCOs and providing local lenders with risk mitigation instruments to support them. This investment was projected to create approximately 6,000 new direct jobs, mainly for the youth, and contribute to avoidance of nearly 37.08 kilotons of CO2eq emissions per year ;
4. Africa is well endowed with a number of forms of renewable energies- solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass- on a per capita basis and in terms of resource diversity (Avila et al, 2017).⁶ The continent has good potential for geothermal energy due to the formation of the Great Rift Valley. In East Africa, the Great Rift Valley has large potential for geothermal power generation which is yet to be fully explored. If its potential 15 gigawatts of energy production were used, the electricity generated could power around 700,000 homes in the region. Solar energy is also a significant energy resource as many African countries have daily solar radiation ranging between 4 and 6 kWh/m² (Mazzoni, 2019),⁷ although it is dependent on weather conditions. North African is the highest investor region in solar energy with Ouarzazate Noor solar complex in Morocco, currently producing about 2,000 MW, ranging as one of the largest concentrated solar plants in the world ;
5. Given the current impact of climate change, the reliability of wind and hydropower in Africa is becoming questionable. Many African countries are characterized by low wind speeds and Africa accounts for a relatively small share of global employment in the wind power industry. In 2018, the wind industry employed 1.15 million people worldwide with African accounting for less than 4 % (IRENA, 2018).⁸ However, wind power production has gained some prominence especially in East Africa. With support from the AfDB, Kenya recently unveiled the Lake Turkana Wind Power Farm, the largest wind farm in Africa with 365 turbines and a capacity to dispense 310 MW of reliable, low-cost energy to the national grid. Climate change, characterized by prolonged drought has made hydropower an unreliable source of energy in Africa ;
6. Thermal energy, in particular, oil and gas, is another sub-sector with the potential to create jobs and spur growth on the continent. Oil and gas is a large source employment and fiscal revenues for countries like Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Congo-Brazzaville and Angola. In Nigeria, the oil industry generates about 70 per cent of government revenue and creates over 65,000 and 250,000 direct and indirect jobs, respectively (ILO, 2015).⁹ The recent oil and natural gas discoveries in Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda offer an unprecedented opportunity for economic development and sustainable growth in these four countries and across the region. In 2014, it was :

• Avila, N., Carvallo, J.P., Shaw, B. and Kammen, D.M., 2017. The energy challenge in sub-Saharan Africa: A guide for advocates and policy makers. Generating Energy for Sustainable and Equitable Development, Part, 1, pp.1-79 ;
• Mazzoni, D., 2019. Digitalization for energy access in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges, opportunities and potential business models ;
• IRENA, 2018. Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2018 ;
• ILO, 2015 “Women and Men in the Informal Economy: A Statistical Picture (Third Edition),” International Labour Organization, Geneva stimated that close to 2 million jobs would be created in the oil and gas industry and associated value chains in Africa, with about 0.7 million jobs created in countries with recent oils discoveries such as Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda (ibid). Recently, the AfDB concluded its bid to co-finance the construction of Mozambique’s integrated Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant by signing a senior loan of US $400m for the transformational project.

7. Generally, the potential for job creation in the energy sector is yet to be fully realized in Africa- limiting the sector’s job creation prospects. Energy-related employment remains low in Africa despite its potential partly due to low energy use. While the continent accounts for 15% of the world’s population, it accounts for less than 5% of global electricity use. Although access has been slowly rising, only 43% of the population in Africa had access to electricity (translating to about 600 million people, including more than 80% residing in rural areas), far less than regions like East Asia Pacific (97% access) and Europe and Central Asia (99% access) (World Bank, 2019).¹⁰ Only two countries in the region, Mauritius and Seychelles, have near universal electricity coverage. Household electricity access is 75% or higher in only six nations in Africa ; 

8. The low energy use in Africa comes at the backdrop of untapped renewable and non-renewable energy which if properly exploited, has the potential to create thousands of jobs for the youth (Adams and Asante, 2019).¹¹ For instance, less than 1% of the continent’s geothermal power generation potential have been exploited despite the region’s geothermal resource abundance as already demonstrated (Hafner, et al. 2018).¹² Africa’s crude oil and natural gas reserves also remain largely under-explored with countries like Mozambique and Tanzania having the largest unexploited offshore gas fields in the world (Amanam, 2017).¹³ As at 2017, an estimated US$43-55 billion of annual investment in the energy sector was needed from 2017 to 2030-2040 to meet the demand and provide universal access to electricity in Africa but only a fraction (about US$8-9.2 billion) of that was being achieved (Adams and Asante, 2019).¹⁴ 

9. One of the factors constraining the energy’s sector potential to create jobs in Africa is the skills gap. While more than 600 million people in Africa have no access to electricity (World Bank 2019), the region has only 76,000 people working in the renewable energy sector (IRENA, 2018), to :

• World Bank, 2019, Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa Uptake, Reliability, and Complementary Factors for Economic Impact, Washington DC ;
• Adams, S. and Asante, W., 2019. Politics of Renewable Energy in Africa: Nature, Prospects, and Challenges. In Innovation in Global Green Technologies 2020. IntechOpen ;
• Hafner, M., Tagliapietra, S. and de Strasser, L., 2018. Prospects for renewable energy in Africa. In Energy in Africa (pp. 47-75). Springer, Cham ;
• Amanam, U.U., 2017. Natural gas in East Africa: Domestic and regional use. Presymposium White Paper on Reducing Energy Poverty with Natural Gas: Changing Political, Business, and Technology Paradigms, Stanford University, CA (9–10 May). https://www.ngi. stanford. edu/sites/default/files/NGI_EAfrica_LitReview, pp.284-17 ;
• Adams, S. and Asante, W., 2019. Politics of Renewable Energy in Africa: Nature, Prospects, and Challenges. In Innovation in Global Green Technologies 2020. IntechOpen. meet such high potential demand. In particular, the demand for various off-grid DRE appliances across Africa is growing against an acute deficiency of skills across its value chain, particularly in rural areas (Power for All, 2019).¹⁵ According to off-grid energy solutions firms such as BBOXX (https://www.bboxx.com/), expansion to new markets in Africa has been constrained by the lack of talents (for countries like Rwanda and DRC Congo) and cost of retaining the talents (for Kenya) (see Box 1).

Box 1: Skills gap Challenges in the Off-grid DREs: BBOXX’s country experiences

• Rwanda and DRC Congo: Challenging to find a host of key competencies at “job-ready” level. The most pressing challenge has been around finding very capable and experienced managing directors and senior finance managers. This is largely due to the fact that Rwanda has few large multinational companies (MNCs) of the kind that typically train staff very well (and that, as a result, contribute to the building of large pools of job-ready talent in-market) ;
• Kenya and Togo: It is easier to find very capable talent at all levels due to significant presence of MNCs that are able to train local talents. The main limitation, for the case of Kenya, is however the cost of attracting the talent. The very best talent in some parts of Kenya, particularly in Nairobi, tends to be very expensive, due largely to the fact that MNCs (e.g. Microsoft, Cisco etc.) pay very well. NGOs also tend to pay very well across East Africa, which distorts the market pay rates quite a bit.

Source : https://www.pv-tech.org/news/skills-gap-holding-back-global-decentralised-renewable-energy-sector

10. The skills gaps are also eminent in other forms of energy. For instance, in the oil and gas industry, countries such as Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda have not been able to fully take advantage of recent oil and gas discoveries due to the lack of domestic skilled labour, from engineers, technicians and project managers to lower-level laboring jobs (IFC, UNDP and IPIECA, 2017).¹⁶ The problem is compounded by the requirement to hire a certain proportion of the workforce from the local market. There are concerns that the continent has not built adequate skills, including digital, technical, and vocational skills capable of developing, installing, operating and managing both renewable and non-renewable solutions (WEC, 2018).

Objectives of the Survey :

11. Responding to such skills challenges facing the energy sector in Africa requires robust data. Skills surveys in Africa, including in critical sectors are infrequently collected and updated. In response, the Education and Skills Development Division (AHHD1), which focuses on scaling-up of Bank’s support to education, human capital and employment, is planning to undertake a skills survey in the energy sector, with a particular focus on off-grid Distributed Renewable Energy sub-sector. The survey is planned to be undertaken in partnership with relevant divisions in the Bank including Jobs for Youth and Agriculture divisions as well as in-country Bank teams. It will also be implemented in :

• Power for All, 2019. Renewable Energy Jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia 2019 | Power for All ;
• IFC, UNDP and IPIECA, 2017. Mapping the oil and gas industry to the Sustainable Development Boals: An Atlas, partnership with government (in particular with the ministry responsible for education and skills development) in the targeted countries.

12. The survey seeks to provide skills distribution, gaps, shortages and projections in the off-grid Distributed Renewable Energy industry/sub-sector and, among others, create a better understanding (assessments) of : 

• The currently available skill sets, skills shortages as well as skill gaps in the industry (against potential demand) ;
• The critical and essential skills required for the industry ;
• Skills development in the sector including an assessment of training capacities (institutional and human) of institutions such as TVETs, colleges and universities; distribution and linkages of the training institutions curriculum with the industry demands ;
• Biases in skills distributions based on gender and location etc.;
• Possible areas of investments for the Bank to support the countries. 

13. The results from this survey will inform several initiatives being implemented in the Bank. This analytical work will go a long way to inform the Country Strategy Papers in the targeted The results are also bound to inform the current tool that is being developed to guide the integration of skills development in the Bank’s lending and non-lending operations, as part of the ADF15 policy commitment. In addition, the outcome will also inform the Skills Development for Employability Strategy 2021-2025, that is currently being developed by the Bank’s Education and Skills Development Unit. This diagnostic survey has the potential to improve the programming of Bank related energy programs and guide the development of new lending operations in skills development and employability, especially in the energy sector. This work can also form the basis for Bank investments in new operations related to skills development.

Proposed Scope of the Survey :

14. As mentioned, this skills survey will cover the off-grid Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE) sub-sector. Specifically, the focus (subject to further refinement following discussion between the Bank team and the Consultant) will be on the following technologies: solar lanterns and solar home systems (SHS), standalone and grid-tied commercial and industrial (C&I) solar systems, solar water pumps and heaters, and mini-grids, as shown in the Table below. In addition, the survey will cover the entire DRE value chain, including manufacturing and assembly, import, wholesale, sales and distribution, project development and installation, operations and maintenance (O&M), and other DRE services such as finance, software, and technical support.

Table 1: DRE Value Chains

Source: Based on Power for All, 2019.

Methods/Approaches :

15. The Consultant is expected to come up with the appropriate approaches for undertaking the survey. Nevertheless, data will generally be collected through different approaches including desk review, structured interviews (quantitative means) and focus group discussions (qualitative means) :

• Desk review: The literature will form part of the deliverable for phase 1 of the work. Here, the Consultant will undertake a deep review and analysis of previous work, policy documents, secondary data, among others, and prepare a report, responding to the survey objectives, to be submitted as one of the key deliverables. The literature review might also help clarify some of the study issues such as the scope of the study; methods to be used and corresponding respondents ;
• Data collection: This will be collected through a number of strategies including interviews, questionnaire and focus-group discussion, among others. The Consultant will be required to clearly outline data collection approaches (as well as the key respondents), that will generate sufficient data to answer the envisaged objectives of this skills survey. The approaches identified should also account for the challenges that COVID-19 might pose to the whole process of data collection including limitations related to travels ;
• Data Analysis and report writing: Data gathered using various methods and tools will to be collated, analyzed and interpreted systematically. Quantitative data will be analyzed using a statistical package, in particular STATA or other statistical data analysis programs available that can help generate the required information. Qualitative data will be analyzed for key themes and used to supplement quantitative data organized into themes. Only data that responds to the envisaged survey objectives should be collected and analyzed.

Timelines :

16. The timelines and deliverables for this work will be split into two phases : 

• Phase 1: This phase will involve responding to the survey objectives based on a literature The Consultant will undertake a deep review and analysis of previous work, policy documents, secondary data, among others, and a develop a detailed report, of no more than 10 pages, emanating from the literature review (that responds to the survey objectives). The report will be deliverable exactly one month from the signing of the contract- most preferably end of November 2020. This report will need to be delivered on time so as to inform the Skills for Employability and Entrepreneurship Strategy 2021-2025 that is currently under development ;

• Phase 2: This phase will involve responding to the survey objectives based on data collected from the key informants, leveraging on the efforts and resorts in phase 1. The report, from phase, which combined together with the report from phase 1, will be deliverable exactly four months from the signing of the contract.

Key Expectations and Deliverables from the Consultant :

• Liaise with government (in particular with the ministry responsible for energy as well as education and skills development), in-country Bank teams and other key stakeholders, to ensure buy-in, throughout the time of the survey ;
• Scope of the study– leveraging on the Consultant’s knowledge of the sector and working with the Bank team, revisit section C of these TORs to clearly define the scope of the work, in particular, define the off-grid DRE energy sub-sector to be covered and associated value chains to be covered, the various stakeholders and participants (potential respondents) across the value chains ;
• Inception report– provide an inception report which clearly and succinctly outlines the scope of the study and methodology including the main research methods, selection criteria of the respondents, the sampling framework, proposed sources of data as well as procedures for data collection and analysis ;
• Data collection tools (instruments)– provide the research or data collection tools to be discussed and approved by the Bank team, before data collection commences ;
• First Draft Report (for phase 1)- provide first draft report (for phase 1), after incorporating suggestions and recommendations from the wider survey team including the Bank team ;
• First Draft Report (for phase 2)- provide first draft report (for phase s), after incorporating suggestions and recommendations from the wider survey team including the Bank team ;
• Final report- provide the fine report (for phase 1 and 2), in one electronic copy in PDF and word format ;
• Power point presentation of the key results – which the Consultant will present to the different stakeholders including government officials.

Qualitative and quantitative data collected during the survey :

Administrative Arrangement :

The consultant will be under the general supervision of the Manager, Education and Skills Development (AHHD.1) in the Human Capital, Youth and Skills Development Department, who may delegate the responsibility to another person.

Qualifications and Expertise Required :

For consultant firms bidding this work, the following qualifications are essential for key team members :

• At least a master’s degree (with PhD as an added advantage) in education, economics, and other related discipline ;
• Minimum of 10 years’ relevant professional experience in research and labor market studies ;
• Strong background and experience in data collection and analysis ;
• Technical expertise in assessing issues of labor market demand and supply in Africa, and the ability to draw strong and valid conclusions ;
• Previous experience in skills survey in off-grid DREs will be an added advantage ;
• Excellent in data management including use of statistical packages such as STATA ;
• Ability to work within tight timelines ;
• Excellent written communication skills in English with a working understanding of French; ability to write clear and concise reports.