Ethiopia is undergoing a period of heightened volatility and fragility as it navigates its various political, economic, demographic, and environmental transitions. A major challenge in Ethiopia’s recent political trajectory is ongoing political contestation that have resulted in a number of different violent conflicts. Conflicts ranging from low to severe scale happen in various parts of the country. However, the three major conflict hot spot regions in the country are primarily Amhara and Oromia, with Benishangul-Gumuz closely implicated as well.
The Amhara region has been facing several violent conflicts during the past years, including local inter-ethnic conflicts, regional and international border disputes, and the war in the north. The region contains various elements of conflicting socio-economic and political dynamics, including rising ethno-nationalism and a violent territorial agenda. In recent years, ethno-nationalist sentiments have been gaining ground in the region, with a discourse that includes both issues of power balance between elites, territorial claims, and marginalization in all its sense. Regional forces and militias have been fighting alongside government forces against Tigrayan forces for over two years, with some militias taking strong stances on contentious issues underpinning the conflict. During the last years, violent clashes and attacks on civilians have also increased, particularly in areas inhabited by ethnic Amharas living in the areas bordering other region. Deep-rooted conflict occurs frequently on the border areas between Oromia and Amhara, between Benishangul-Gumuz and Amhara, and in the Oromo Special Zone within the region itself. Similar conflicts with a lesser degree happened along the bordering towns of Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz Regions. The region has also been a conflict hotspot of the border dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia for the last 2-3 years.
At the same time, the Government of Ethiopia has undertaken a number initiatives aimed to promote sustainable peace in the country. These include: the appointment of a National Dialogue Commission (NDC) and process to be launched in 2023; signing a Peace Agreement with the TPLF on 2 November; a costed Recovery and Resilience Plan aimed to support conflict-affected regions, including Tigray, Afar, Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz and to some extent Oromia; and existing processes aimed at promoting accountability and transitional justice, including the joint EHRC-OHCHR investigation and follow up by an Inter-Ministerial Commission.
In light of these challenges, opportunities and their implications for the sustainable development and peace of Ethiopia, the United Nations seeks to undertake a peace and conflict analysis of the national context, with a focus on Amhara and Oromia regions, as well as conflict issues in contiguous areas of other regions, including Benishangul-Gumuz and possible extension to other regions. The purpose of this research and analysis is to support the UN in developing more risk-informed and conflict sensitive strategies, programmes, partnerships and operational approaches and to identify entry-points for supporting social cohesion and peacebuilding to support resilience, diversity management issues and put in place peace structures and SDG implementation in these regions.
The analysis will be undertaken under the aegis of a One UN approach to engagement in the context and will inform the work of the UN across its humanitarian, development, and peace pillars as well as HPD nexus collaboration, especially at the sub-national level.